中国制造业出走：墨西哥与美国如何抢占先机
For years, I’ve seen a familiar pattern play out—usually on LinkedIn, and usually from Chinese lawyers: whenever I write about the strategic shift of manufacturing from China to Mexico, someone inevitably replies, “But those products from Mexico are still essentially Chinese."
尽管许多在墨西哥组装的产品仍含有中国零部件，但这种现象未能反映更广泛的经济图景。制造业向墨西哥转移——尽管仍存在对华零部件的持续依赖——标志着一场重大的经济格局重组，为墨西哥和美国都带来了切实且日益增长的利益。同样重要的是，中国零部件在墨西哥制造产品中的占比正持续且明显地下降。
经济涟漪效应：超越简单组装
当产品在墨西哥制造时，其价值的相当一部分——某些行业往往高达50%甚至更高——可归因于美国制造的零部件。这意味着每花费一美元购买墨西哥制造的产品，约有五十美分或更多资金通过关键零部件、原材料和先进机械的供应回流至美国经济。 与此形成鲜明对比的是，完全在中国制造的产品对美国国内经济活动的贡献微乎其微，其价值主要流向海外。
The deep integration of supply chains between Mexico and the United States means a significant portion of the value in goods exported from Mexico to the U.S. already originates in the United States. According to the Council of State Governments West (CSG West), citing OECD data, Mexico's trade surplus with the U.S. is "drastically reduced" if U.S. content is factored in, with about one-third of Mexico's gross exports to the U.S. comprised of U.S.-sourced parts and services. Supporting this, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) reported that over 40% of all Mexican goods imported in 2024 came from the United States. By contrast, U.S. content in Chinese exports is estimated to less than 5%.
This means that when you manufacture in Mexico for the U.S. market, you're not just tapping into lower labor costs, you’re also building with American inputs and reinforcing the U.S.-Mexcio supply chain.
不仅如此，依托近岸外包的强劲墨西哥经济，还提升了墨西哥消费者的购买力。相较于中国消费者，墨西哥消费者无论在国内还是赴美期间，都更倾向于购买美国商品与服务。这种消费行为进一步放大了制造业回流对美国经济的积极影响。
核心结论：在墨西哥开展制造业不仅是比中国更优的长远选择，更是对美国而言在几乎所有层面上都更理想的结局。
为何出走？关税之外
尽管美国对中国进口商品加征关税引发了最初的转变，但制造业持续撤离中国是由多个因素共同推动的：
劳动力成本上升
China's once-unmatched low-cost labor advantage has steadily eroded. Wages across its manufacturing hubs have climbed significantly over the past decade, narrowing the cost gap with nations like Mexico and Vietnam. As labor becomes pricier, the economic rationale for manufacturing in China weakens, especially when compounded by other strategic risks.
地缘政治风险与贸易紧张局势
中国与主要贸易伙伴——尤其是美国和欧盟——之间持续升级的紧张关系，正为长期供应链规划注入不确定性。关税、制裁、出口管制和不断变化的贸易政策交织成动荡局面，使中国作为全球制造业基地的风险大幅攀升。为此，众多企业正积极采取降风险策略，将业务转移或分散至与美国立场一致而非对立的国家。
知识产权（IP）问题
知识产权执法在中国始终面临挑战。随着地缘政治摩擦加剧，围绕知识产权盗窃或强制技术转让的法律与实际风险也在不断加剧。拥有专有设计、技术或品牌资产的企业，正日益青睐知识产权保护力度强、司法可预测性高的司法管辖区。
供应链韧性
新冠疫情残酷地暴露了过度扩张且高度集中的全球供应链的脆弱性。漫长的交货周期、集装箱短缺以及中国工厂的大规模停工，使全球生产陷入瘫痪。如今企业优先构建更短、更灵活的供应链体系，以更快适应市场波动、地缘政治事件及未来可能出现的各类中断。
市场邻近性
将生产基地设在距离世界最大消费市场美国更近的地方，具有显著而切实的优势。向墨西哥近岸外包可缩短运输时间、降低物流成本，从而实现更灵活的库存管理、即时生产，并更快响应不断变化的消费者需求。
文化契合度
文化契合度与相容的商业实践常被忽视却至关重要。对许多美国和加拿大企业而言，墨西哥提供更熟悉的商业文化和法律体系。共同的区域贸易协定（如《美墨加协定》）、双语劳动力以及更高度重叠的商业预期，都简化了谈判、沟通和合作伙伴管理。相比之下，中美商业关系中文化与监管层面的误解往往引发摩擦。
丹佛斯案例：墨西哥的战略适应
In Caught Between Tariffs and China, Mexico Adapts to an Unpredictable U.S., today's New York Times discusses how American companies are thriving in Mexico, and how both American and Mexican manufacturers are actively de-Chinafying their supply chains within Mexico. The article also features a compelling case study on Danfoss, a large Danish multinational, which has shifted key operations from China to Mexico as part of this regional reorientation.
有趣的插曲： 丹佛斯被选作此例既耐人寻味又颇具深意。早在2005年左右本博客创立初期，我们曾发布一篇（现已删除）文章，将丹佛斯奉为中国市场成功典范。 该文基于我当时阅读的一篇报道，详细描述了丹佛斯在中国市场的具体举措，我特别提炼出他们六到八项做得非常到位的策略。当时我称赞他们是少数真正"懂中国"的外国企业之一，并将其作为其他企业值得效仿的典范。
如今，近二十年过去，丹佛斯似乎再次走在时代前沿——这次是在引领企业战略重心从中国转移的浪潮中。
据《纽约时报》报道，为应对美国对中国进口商品加征关税的压力以及对供应链稳定性的普遍诉求，丹佛斯公司战略性地调整了其墨西哥业务布局，以符合《美墨加协定》（USMCA）的严格要求。通过主动从北美地区采购零部件并大幅提升本地化生产，丹佛斯不仅减轻了关税冲击，更深化了区域经济联系，同时显著提升了物流运营效率。
"Until now, Mexico's trade strategy was still closely tied to Asia. Bringing in supplies from there was financially viable because of the low costs: Instead of thinking how to manufacture things here, I'd import them. But the current situation is pushing us to think, 'Hey, why not?'"
—Xavier Casas, Danfoss Factory Director, Apodaca, Mexico
Before the tariffs took effect in March, only about 40 percent of Danfoss's exports traded under USMCA rules. However, when Trump agreed to suspend tariffs on Mexican goods that fell under the agreement, the company rapidly adapted. Today, virtually all Danfoss products shipped from Mexico to the United States comply with the trade deal. Most products that meet USMCA's specific rules of origin can enter the United States tariff-free.
《美墨加协定》：区域制造业繁荣的催化剂
The USMCA has promoted manufacturing growth and integration within North America. By stipulating that a significant percentage of a product's value must originate from within the member countries (U.S., Mexico, Canada) to qualify for tariff exemptions, the agreement provides powerful incentives for companies to rethink their global sourcing strategies. This not only reduces dependency on external, often distant, suppliers but it also fosters economic growth, job creation, and industrial sophistication within the North American region.
该策略已初见成效。据《纽约时报》报道，目前约87%的墨西哥出口产品免征美国关税。
The USMCA's emphasis on labor standards, environmental protections, and digital trade rules helps ensure that manufacturing growth aligns with broader societal values, promoting a more sustainable and equitable economic development model across the continent.
政府领导力：墨西哥计划
Mexico's leadership is helping to drive this transformation. Per the New York Times article, President Claudia Sheinbaum has launched "Plan Mexico," an ambitious strategy to revitalize manufacturing, substitute imports, and balance the trade deficit with countries like China that lack trade deals with Mexico.
"With the United States, we have the trade agreement, which is very important," Sheinbaum said recently, emphasizing that strengthening USMCA is "the only way" North America can "compete with Asian countries, particularly China."
The numbers are compelling: Per the New York Times, if North America could manufacture just 10 percent of the imports it currently receives from China, Mexico's GDP would grow by 1.2 percent, the United States by 0.8 percent, and Canada by 0.2 percent.
早在特朗普当选之前，我们长期合作的墨西哥律师们就常告诉我们：无论是墨西哥民众还是政府都深知，该国终将面临在美国与中国之间作出抉择的时刻，而这个选择永远会是美国。如今我们正亲眼见证着这一预言的实现。
数据讲述故事
美国进口：中国与墨西哥对比（2017–2025年）
美国人口普查局的数据显示，美国正逐步脱离中国、转向墨西哥。自中国加入世贸组织以来，2023年美国自墨西哥进口额首次超越自中国的进口额。2017至2023年间，美国自中国进口下降16%，而自墨西哥进口则激增52%。
2025年的数据显示，美国从墨西哥的进口额约为2195亿美元，超过了中国，而美国从中国的进口额仅为1485亿美元。
更广泛的影响：多方面的优势
制造业从中国加速转移至墨西哥和美国，具有若干深远而关键的优势：
- 增强经济韧性：通过分散制造业布局和缩短供应链，可降低全球性中断（如疫情或地缘政治冲突）的风险，并增强所有相关国家的经济稳定性。
- 强劲的就业创造：北美制造业活动的增长直接转化为墨西哥和美国的新就业机会，这些岗位往往需要高技能，从而增强两国经济实力并推动工资增长。
- 增强战略自主性：减少对任何单一外国制造中心的过度依赖——尤其是对中国——既能提升国家安全水平，又能强化关键国内产业，同时使主权国家对重要商品和技术拥有更大控制权。
- 优化环境足迹：更短的供应链本质上能降低运输相关的碳排放，助力实现全球可持续发展目标。
更强有力的知识产权保护：在更熟悉的法律框架下运营，凭借坚实的知识产权保障，既能降低盗窃风险，又能确保创新获得更高回报。
这种转变不仅关乎经济利益——更关乎价值观、理念契合度以及内心的安宁。正如一位近期将全部生产从中国转移至墨西哥的客户所言：
每天醒来，我都感到更加欣慰——因为我的公司正在帮助一位邻居，一位与我们共享价值观的伙伴，而不是助长那个企图让我们失败的体系。
这种观点凸显了许多人正在认识到的事实：制造决策不再仅仅关乎利润率——它们关乎长期的协调一致、稳定性和信任。
北美制造业复兴
随着越来越多的企业致力于降低供应链对中国的依赖，更广泛的趋势表明，美墨供应链生态系统正朝着更深度融合的方向发展。
全球供应链正经历深刻的重组。随着企业适应新的地缘政治与经济现实，对北美制造业的关注已不仅是趋势——这更是一场重塑整个大陆工业、贸易及经济韧性未来的结构性转变。那些顺应北美制造业复兴浪潮的企业，将为长期成功与稳定奠定最坚实的基础。
