Most Americans favor federal cannabis legalization. Nearly all Americans support medical cannabis legalization. This is not a new development. It has been that way for years. And it is a rare non-partisan issue. Over the past few years while support has been its highest, well, ever, a series of federal election cycles have come and gone. You'd think that with a unicorn non-partisan issue with majority and super- or even ultra-majority support, the federal government would have figured something out by now. But nope.
Federal cannabis legislation isn't going to happen
Back in 2018, when California opened up for recreational cannabis licensing, all I heard was how federal cannabis legalization was around the corner. In fact, a lot of businesses bet their business model on federal cannabis legalization actually happening. Remember how the MORE Act, or the PREPARE Act, or the States Reform Act, or the Cannabis Administration and Opportunity Act, or H.R. 420, or any other legalization bill was "about to happen"? Yeah, about that...
What a lot of cannabis advocated didn't realize is that support for cannabis legalization at the 30,000 foot level is hard to translate into actual legislation that can garner bipartisan support. The federal government can't just legalize cannabis - it has to create some kind of legal framework to do that. And that is where the shit hit the fan. In order to reach a compromise, Democrats needed to give up on some equity provisions, while Republicans needed to give up on some business provisions. And nobody seemed to be able to compromise.
因此，我们得到的并非联邦层面的大麻合法化，而是一系列错误的零敲碎打式合法化尝试，其中最显著的当属《安全银行法案》。就在我撰写本文之际，该法案正遭遇上述命运——尽管游说力量倾尽全力，国会仍无法达成基本妥协。
So here is my first prediction: even though federal cannabis legalization should be low hanging fruit, it won't happen. At least not in Congress, and at least not before the 2024 general election.
联邦大麻管理政策调整很可能成为现实
这让我不得不谈及行政层面的问题。去年十月，拜登总统赦免了部分追溯性的大麻简单持有罪行，同时宣布了以下内容：
我要求卫生与公众服务部长及司法部长启动行政程序，迅速审查大麻在联邦法律中的分类。现行联邦法律将大麻列为《管制物质法》第一类物质，该分类专用于最危险的物质。此分类与海洛因和LSD相同，甚至高于芬太尼和甲基苯丙胺——正是这些药物正引发我国的药物过量流行病。
自那以后，联邦政府显然认真对待了这份信函。例如，我最近就各州如何向联邦政府共享医用大麻数据一事接受了MJBizDaily的采访。至少有人预测，重新分类工作将在今年晚些时候完成。
With that, here is my second prediction: the federal government will reschedule cannabis, but not remove it from the Controlled Substances Act (CSA) altogether. My preference would be for complete descheduling and deferral to the states (see here and here), but that seems unlikely for a few reasons. First off, Biden's announcement (if you read between the lines) essentially asks for rescheduling as opposed to rescheduling. Second, Biden (the guy we gave a "D" rating on cannabis) himself has called for moving cannabis to schedule II. Third, the federal government is looking for medical data from the states, which is relevant to determining the proper CSA schedule.
总而言之，联邦政府对大麻的重新分类很可能会实现，只是不会通过国会来完成。
第二类（有害）或第三类（危害较小）
My third prediction is that cannabis will end up on schedule II or III. Either way, not much will change from the state regulatory point of view. No state's regulatory program will comply with federal laws if cannabis is on any CSA schedule. Just think about someone selling anabolic steroids with a state license but no DEA registration. Nope! Likewise, rescheduling won't necessarily ease up restrictions on consumers. Illegally purchased prescription drugs are illegal, and so illegally purchased cannabis would be too.
然而，最大的变化将体现在联邦税法上。这是因为《国内税收法典》第280E条规定：
在课税年度内，若任何贸易或业务（或构成该贸易或业务的活动）涉及《管制物质法》附表I及II所定义的管制物质贩运，则该贸易或业务所支付或产生的任何款项均不得扣除或抵免。根据《管制物质法》附表I和II的定义）的贩运活动，且该贩运行为违反联邦法律或该贸易或业务所在州的法律。
Businesses that "traffic" in controlled substances ON SCHEDULES I OR II cannot make standard tax deductions. This is one of the top reasons, if not THE top reason that the cannabis industry is up against the ropes now. If cannabis is rescheduled onto schedule II, the tax burden won't change. If it goes onto III or (less likely) IV or V, the tax problem is mitigated, at least going forward.
若280E法案消失，大麻产业将迎来翻天覆地的变化。本已微薄的利润空间将有所改善，基本枯竭的投资资金将强势回归。诸如此类，这将彻底改变游戏规则。但前提是大麻必须降级至三类或更低管制级别。
在大选之前将会发生某些事情
Not to be cynical (okay, I am totally cynical), but I predict that the rescheduling will happen around the time of the 2024 election. Why? Because it will give the current administration a bump. And with a number of swing states like Pennsylvania that have embraced cannabis, that's exactly what the current administration needs to do to keep control of the government.
It's really hard to predict how federal cannabis laws will shake out and I usually refrain from joining the "legalization is around the corner crowd." The U.S. Congress is perhaps the most inept it's ever been, and we're dealing with a government that still treats cannabis the same way as heroin and more intensely than opioids. But with an election cycle and an administrative process that's already in motion, I think it's safe to say that something will happen in the next year. Whether that something ends up being good or bad though is anyone's guess.
