围绕中国制造产品的不确定性，正促使许多外国企业（尤其是向美国销售产品的企业）向我们咨询：他们该如何降低风险，以及还能考虑哪些其他地方来生产产品。参见《从中国采购是否风险过高？》
Decisions about leaving China are not without risks, but there is a path forward. In my role as Harris Sliwoski's Senior International Manufacturing Advisor, I usually start by reminding people that it (leaving China) is already happening. You won’t be the first. Companies are already leaving, including Chinese companies looking for other places to make their stuff. Needless to say, other countries are vigorously competing for this business. Your path forward may not be a superhighway, but there are fairly well- paved roads to get there.
Our firm has lately been focused on the ASEAN region as a China alternative, specifically Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and The Philippines. We look to ASEAN countries because: (1) Many of our clients are already familiar with this region, (2) It is closeto China and China's existing supplier base, (3) It has competitive manufacturing costs, (4) It has a large and diverse manufacturing capacity, and (5) It benefits from government support of manufacturing exporting. It also does not hurt that ASEAN consists of approximately 650 million people/consumers.
东盟与中国签署了自由贸易协定。这意味着企业可以在东盟国家寻找新的制造基地，同时通常仍能以零关税且成本相近的方式从中国采购所需的原材料和零部件。这意味着您可以开始将业务转移出中国，而无需完全撤离中国。 但正如我们的国际贸易律师常说的，您必须谨慎行事，确保不要将过多的“中国制造”产品转移至东盟，以免美国海关仍将您的产品视为中国制造。 参阅《中美关税最新动态：您现在可以采取的措施》。您最不希望看到的情况是，因非法转口而被迫缴纳关税和罚款，甚至可能面临监禁。参阅《进口产品时需警惕《虚假声明法》》。
When we work with companies looking to move manufacturing from China, it is important we first determine why the company wants to leave China and what they are trying to accomplish by doing so. Increasing costs and tariffs may be driving companies out of China, but other factors should be considered before deciding whether to leave and where to leave to. Every country does different things well. Every company looking to leave China should decide what is most important for them, their products, markets, IP protection, supply chains, and future direction of their business. A large part of our job then becomes lining up that company with a country and a manufacturer that most closely satisfies that company's short and long term goals.
Finding a new supplier or location to operate a factory is a significant business decision and it should be treated as such. Some of our clients are interested in finding new suppliers and some want to start up entire new factories themselves. We need to clearly distinguish between the two. In sourcing, for example, the range of what can and will be done is huge, from a simple purchase of a fungible commodity product all the way to purchasing high tech electronics where the factory is expected to provide substantial engineering input. Some of our clients are highly focused on costs, while others are highly focused on quality. Figuring all this out for each client can be complicated and time consuming and the resulting project is quite different depending on the client's goals and the result of the analysis.
我们曾有客户生产的产品非常适合在泰国生产。也有其他客户生产相同的产品（但主要面向完全不同的市场），而墨西哥才是他们的最佳选择。在选择国家及具体供应商时，很少有放之四海皆准的答案。确实，很多时候我们最终得出的结论是，对中国客户而言，留在中国才是最佳方案。
我们的一些客户认为，在东南亚寻找、选择并合作制造商与在中国开展这些业务大同小异，但实际情况很可能并非如此。仅举一个小例子：从越南发货比从中国发货要困难得多。 整体物流成本也可能高出许多。只有在综合考量所有因素后，才能对这一决策做出恰当评估；若忽视其中某些关键因素，则可能导致错误的商业决策。无论在软硬件基础设施方面，中国都远超其他绝大多数国家。相比东南亚，在中国开展业务简直易如反掌。请相信我们的判断。
无论是否征收关税，中国的成本都在上涨，在这里开展业务正变得越来越困难，对美国企业而言尤为如此，而且种种迹象表明，情况只会愈发严峻。对于那些利润依赖于持续、可靠且不中断的贸易的企业来说，过去这一年左右的时间可谓艰难异常。这既源于不确定性——即可能出现更多贸易壁垒的风险——也源于实际征收的关税。
In the end, the decision to move your manufacturing is -- of course -- up to those who run your company. My job as international manufacturing consultant is to help you plan for contingencies, understand your options, and wisely manage and respond to your existing and future risks. If you are contemplating moving your manufacturing from China, this sort of planning should start today.
