I have previously written on the TikTok Ban. Legislation passed by congress and signed into law by President Biden earlier in 2024 would require TikTok’s parent company ByteDance to sell TikTok to a US company or face an outright ban in the United States. ByteDance has until January 19, 2025, to sell the app before the ban goes into effect. The ban would see the mobile application used by nearly half of Americans removed from mobile app stores and would shutter US operations. The alleged basis of the ban is national security concerns, including that the Government of China could use the app for nefarious purposes and obtain the customer data and social media information of millions of Americans. Despite this proffered concern, the evidence supporting the legislation has remained hidden from public view.
As expected TikTok brought legal action to stop enforcement of the forced sale or outright ban on First Amendment grounds. And on Friday, a federal appeals court panel unanimously upheld the law. The panel of three judges from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit said that the Government acted solely to protect free speech in the United States from a foreign adversary nation, and to limit that adversary’s ability to gather data on the American people. They deemed the law constitutional. The appeals court determined that the law does not violate TikTok’s First Amendment rights because the law doesn’t target any specific speech on the mobile application, and that instead, the law is aimed at ending foreign adversary control, not content censorship.
An appeal by TikTok to the U.S. Supreme Court is expected, though whether they will take up the case is unknown at this time. The Supreme Court could agree to hear the case, and stay the law’s implementation pending their decision, or decline to hear the case and let the appeals court’s ruling stand.
President-elect Donald Trump indicated a reversal of his previous position supporting the ban and stated that he would take steps to save the app when he takes office on January 20, 2024. Exactly how or when he could do that remains unclear. He could tell the administration not to argue in favor of it before the Supreme Court, he could lobby congress to repeal the ban, or he could direct his administration not to enforce it.
The Justin Department indicated its strong support for the appeals court’s ruling, saying Friday’s decision “is an important step in blocking the Chinese government from weaponizing TikTok to collect sensitive information about millions of Americans, to covertly manipulate the content delivered to American audiences, and to undermine national security.”
ByteDance has said that, in reality, there is no possibility that it could sell TikTok at all— that it was simply not possible: neither commercially, technologically, nor legally. Additionally, the Chinese government vowed to block the sale of TikTok’s algorithm altogether. And as such, any buyer would need to start from scratch with the mobile app to build a new software foundation.
As it stands currently, other major countries have banned TikTok from being on government devices, including Australia and New Zealand. The only other countries that have restricted access to the app entirely are Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, Somalia, and Taiwan.
It is unclear what will happen if the Supreme Court leaves the law in place, as the law doesn’t call for the app to be removed from phones, just that it must be removed from app stores. It stands to reason that without additional updates, the app would eventually cease operating on phones altogether.
A TikTok spokesman said the ban would silence the voices of over 170 million Americans. If it is implemented, it would do exactly that, as TikTok is one of the leading platforms for the sharing of information, news, and ideas in the United States. It would also provide a windfall to other leading social media platforms, who would have decreased competition in the social media marketplace.
Impacts on U.S.-China Trade Relations
The TikTok ban is likely to become another flashpoint in the already tense trade relations between the United States and China. Historically, both countries have engaged in retaliatory measures when disputes arise, and the banning of TikTok could prompt a similar cycle of tit-for-tat responses. However, given China’s current economic challenges and the broader geopolitical context, its response may be more measured this time around.
Likely Retaliation from China
In the past, China has responded to U.S. actions targeting its companies by imposing countermeasures. For example, during the trade wars under the Trump administration, China levied tariffs on U.S. goods, restricted market access for American firms, and bolstered its own industries. In this case, China might consider restrictions on U.S. technology companies operating within its borders, increased scrutiny on American firms, or retaliatory bans on certain U.S. platforms.
However, China’s economy is currently under significant strain, with slowing growth, a fragile real estate market, and high youth unemployment. These challenges may limit its ability or willingness to engage in aggressive retaliation, especially if such actions risk further destabilizing its economic recovery. Additionally, any retaliatory action could invite new tariffs or other trade penalties from a potential second Trump administration, further complicating China’s economic position.
The Role of Tariffs and Economic Pressures
President-elect Donald Trump has already signaled intentions to reimpose or increase tariffs on Chinese goods as part of a broader strategy to reshape trade relations. If new tariffs are implemented, they could further squeeze China’s export-driven economy, leaving Beijing with fewer options to counter U.S. actions effectively.
In such a scenario, China might opt to “shrug off” the TikTok ban rather than escalate tensions further. This approach would signal a strategic pivot to avoid exacerbating its economic vulnerabilities while maintaining a long-term focus on stabilizing its domestic economy and continuing its global initiatives like the Belt and Road.
Geopolitical Considerations
China’s measured response might also be influenced by the shifting geopolitical landscape. After witnessing the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the increasing isolation of Iran, Beijing may be wary of entering into a major confrontation with the United States. Both Russia and Iran have faced severe economic sanctions and diminished global standing, and China likely aims to avoid a similar scenario.
Additionally, China is navigating complex relationships in the Indo-Pacific region, where the U.S. is strengthening alliances with countries like Japan, South Korea, and Australia. Escalating tensions over TikTok could risk alienating other nations that China is seeking to win over or stabilize relations with.
Long-Term Implications
If China opts for a restrained approach, it may focus on fortifying its own technological capabilities and reducing reliance on Western platforms. This strategy aligns with its broader goals of technological self-sufficiency and leadership in emerging industries like AI and green technology.
For the United States, the TikTok ban could reinforce perceptions of a “decoupling” from China in the tech sector, potentially accelerating efforts to create alternative supply chains and innovation ecosystems. However, this decoupling could also result in increased costs for U.S. companies and consumers if China retaliates in ways that disrupt global supply chains or target key U.S. industries.
In sum, while the TikTok ban will likely provoke some level of retaliation from China, Beijing’s current economic and geopolitical realities suggest that its response may be tempered. Instead of escalating the dispute, China may focus on long-term strategies to mitigate the impact of such measures and strengthen its position on the global stage.
