With so much of my attention focused on U.S. rescheduling lately, I wanted to take advantage of the D.C. Circuit’s delay and the DEA ALJ’s delayed timeline. This gives me an opportunity to get back into some considerations on international cannabis reform.
Who controls government is one of the most important factors when discussing cannabis reform. Most international cannabis advisors focus on a country’s cannabis policies, but not necessarily on the politics that created those policies. They also tend to overlook the politics that will determine their future. That is where I differ. I not only follow cannabis policy, but also the politics that can determine whether those policies advance, stall, or move backwards.
Over the past few years, more and more countries have moved politically right. This shift can directly affect how governments implement existing cannabis policies and whether they pursue further reforms. In 2024, the Netherlands took a sharp turn to the right, before returning to more of a middle-right ground in 2026. Since 2025, right-leaning coalitions have also taken control in Germany and the Czech Republic. It is therefore not surprising that governments in Germany and Czechia have pushed to reign in recent cannabis advancements. In Latin America, we have seen Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, and Chile move to the right as well.
This political shift is particularly important now. Several significant cannabis markets face elections or political changes that could determine the direction of cannabis policy for years.
Colombia
Before discussing Brazil, France, and Germany I want to briefly discuss Colombia. The country just swore in its new right-wing President this month.
After a runoff election on June 21, 2026, the right-wing candidate, De la Espriella, won the Presidential election. Espriella was sworn in as Colombia’s President on August 7, 2026. His election is likely an unfortunate turn for further cannabis reform in South America’s most advanced medical cannabis country.
Espriella has been quoted as saying (translated from Spanish) that “there will be no room for marijuana legalization in his administration.” The President also appears to support the failed war on drugs. He has stated (again translated) that “drugs cannot be understood as a matter of individual freedoms but rather as the root of a structural problem that degrades society, corrupts institutions, and destroys families.” Colombia is also likely to return to vigorously fighting against drug trafficking, but the primary focus appears to be coca production.
So far, Espriella has not signaled that he intends to roll back Colombia’s medical marijuana advancements. His election, however, likely means there will be no major advancements in the near future. That includes full legalization, which former President Gustavo Petro saw fall apart at the last minute.
Thankfully, Colombia established the foundation of its medical and scientific cannabis program via legislation, so those laws are likely safe. The decrees and resolutions are much less certain, however. Will Espriella’s administration enforce the laws, license operators, and issue export and import permits?
Brazil
Brazil has expanded its medical marijuana program since President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, or Lula as he is fondly called, took office in 2023. Former President Jair Bolsonaro was a staunch opponent of domestic cannabis cultivation and stopped such advancement in its tracks during his tenure. Since Lula took over, the cannabis industry has pushed forward advancing domestic cultivation. That effort finally became a reality in August of 2026.
Brazil is already a desired destination for U.S. hemp and marijuana operators alike. I know of U.S. exporters sending intoxicating Delta-8 and Delta-9 hemp derived products to Brazil. But the demand is certainly there. Until domestic cultivation gets going, the country’s patients will continue to rely on imports.
In addition to developing domestic cultivation, Brazil saw medical marijuana imports grow by 60% in March 2026. Brazil is a huge market with potential opportunities for U.S. operators. Those opportunities could expand if medical marijuana rescheduling survives court challenges.
Whether these advancements continue could depend on Lula remaining President after Brazil’s October 4th election. Brazil’s election requires a +50% majority. If no candidate crosses that threshold, there will be a runoff election on October 25th. Runoff elections tend to favor the challenger over the incumbent. If the incumbent fails to secure +50%, it means that more than half of voters wanted someone else in the first round.
The primary challenger is former President Bolsonaro’s son, Flávio Bolsonaro. Not a lot is known about where he stands on medical marijuana. However, he opposes broader marijuana legalization and has supported maintaining criminal penalties for possession. His 2026 campaign also emphasizes aggressive drug enforcement. If he follows his father’s approach to medical cannabis, a Bolsonaro victory would not bode well for the industry.
As of August 23, 2026, the first round polling has Lula at 40% and Flávio at 34%. For a runoff, things appear much closer. Lula is at 45%, Flávio is at 44%, and undecideds sit at 11%.
Just before the U.S. goes to the polls in November, the cannabis industry’s eyes should be on Brazil in October. Hopefully Lula can pull it off and stop the conservative wave that has proliferated through Latin America.
France
France is one of the more frustrating countries of late when it comes to cannabis reform. France launched a medical cannabis experiment in March 2021, which ended on December 31, 2024. France then initiated a transition period to ensure that patients treated during the trial maintained access to treatment.
The transition period was initially scheduled to end on January 1, 2025. France then extended it to March 31, 2026, and later until the first quarter of 2027. These extensions became necessary because France has not yet published all rules and decrees implementing its medical cannabis law, enacted in December 2023.
The current law lies somewhere between the medical marijuana frameworks seen in other European jurisdictions and a pharmaceutical model. The program does not initially permit raw marijuana flower. It does, however, provide a tiered reimbursement system under France’s health care system. France will implement the program through its pharmaceutical regulatory structure.
Three years after the program commences, France will reassess whether it should add other products, including flower, to the program. Who leads France at that time could influence that review. But first, France needs to implement the law.
France reportedly submitted the decree governing evaluation, pricing, and reimbursement to the French Conseil d’État on July 2, 2026. The Conseil d’État is France’s highest administrative court. Once it issues its opinion, the French National Authority for Health can formally assess medical cannabis products. It can then make recommendations regarding their eligibility for reimbursement through the French public health system. Companies can start seeking market access once France puts this decree and the other necessary implementing measures into force.
The repeated delays create a real concern that France will again miss its first quarter 2027 deadline. If that occurs, France may not implement the program before it elects its next President.
France goes to the polls on April 18, 2027. France elects its president in two rounds. The top two candidates in the first round face each other in a runoff.
Until a few weeks ago, far right leader Marine Le Pen appeared likely to run away with the Presidency. Her victory would not necessarily spell the end of France’s medical cannabis program. It could, however, raise serious questions about whether France would implement the current framework as planned. A new government could also reconsider parts of the framework. If Le Pen’s party controls the government during the three year review, flower will almost certainly not be added into the program.
There is some good news though for the French cannabis movement. Far left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon has been moving up in the polls. He is now considered the most likely candidate to face Le Pen in the runoff election.
Part of Mélenchon’s 2027 campaign platform proposes to “legalize and regulate the consumption, production, and sale of cannabis for recreational purposes through a state monopoly, under conditions that combat addiction.” If Mélenchon wins, flower could have a strong advocate for inclusion in the medical program. Adult-use legalization would also, for the first time, have a strong proponent in the President.
Germany
Germany does not have another federal election until 2029, but important state elections could foreshadow changes to its cannabis program. A left leaning government implemented Germany’s cannabis program before losing power in 2025. The Christian Democratic Union (“CDU”) then won the most seats in parliament. Because it didn’t win an outright majority, the CDU needed other parties to form a government.
Normally, the CDU would have looked to the second place party as a potential coalition partner. That party, however, was the Alternative for Germany (“AfD”). The AfD is a far right-wing German party that the German counterintelligence agency designates as an extremist party.
The CDU and other mainstream parties have thus far maintained a firewall against allowing the AfD to participate in government. Pursuant to that firewall, the CDU formed a coalition with the Christian Social Union (“CSU”) and Social Democratic Party (“SPD”). Importantly, the SPD spearheaded the cannabis law under the prior left-leaning government.
This matters because the CSU and CDU ran on platforms that called for abolishing the prior government’s cannabis law. The SPD’s participation in the coalition has so far prevented those efforts from succeeding. The biggest question in German cannabis right now should therefore be, how long can the firewall against the AfD last?
The AfD also opposes the prior government’s adult-use cannabis law and believes cannabis should be medical only. Until now, Germany’s other political parties have kept the AfD out of government. In early September, that could all change.
Saxony-Anhalt will hold state elections on September 6th. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern will follow on September 20th. The AfD is currently polling at 42% in Saxony-Anhalt. The second place CDU sits far behind at 22%. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the AfD leads the SPD 36% to 29%.
If the AfD fails to secure an outright majority, it will face the same coalition problem it faces nationally. It would need another party to join it in government. But an outright majority would allow the AfD to form Germany’s first AfD state government. With pressure to align with the AfD likely greater likely greater at a local level, a coalition with another party could potentially do the same.
An AfD state government could then control that state’s Bundesrat votes. For those in the U.S., think of the Bundesrat as similar to a chamber of Congress made up of representatives appointed by each state government. Control of a state government would therefore give the AfD direct influence in the federal legislative process for the first time.
At the same time, the CDU/CSU are trailing the AfD in national polls. If the AfD gains control of a state government and its Bundesrat votes, could it become too big for the CDU/CSU to ignore? Could the CDU/CSU eventually abandon the firewall and replace the SPD with the AfD as a federal governing partner?
I hope not, but the changing political environment makes the question increasingly relevant. Such a coalition could seek to repeal Germany’s current adult-use program. It could also restrict the medical program, including through tighter controls on telehealth and delivery.
Conclusion
The next several months could prove important for the international cannabis industry. Colombia has already shifted to the right. Its new President openly opposes further marijuana legalization, raising questions about whether Colombia’s medical cannabis framework will continue to develop.
Brazil now faces an October election that could determine whether the country continues expanding domestic medical cannabis cultivation under Lula. France is racing against regulatory delays and an April 2027 Presidential election. It still needs to fully implement the medical cannabis framework enacted in 2023. Germany, meanwhile, faces state elections that could test whether its political movement to the right threatens the prior government’s cannabis reforms.
Cannabis operators, investors, and policymakers should not view these elections simply as political events. They could directly affect licensing, cultivation, imports, exports, product availability, reimbursement, and market access.
The larger trend is difficult to ignore. Cannabis reform expanded internationally while many countries had center left or left leaning governments. Several of those countries are now moving in the opposite political direction. That shift will test the durability of their cannabis reforms.
Implementation may provide the best protection against future political changes. Germany’s Phase II legalization illustrates the problem. The prior government contemplated scientific adult-use pilot programs, but those programs never became operational. Under the current government, they likely never will.
That lesson extends beyond Germany. If a country does not implement cannabis reform before political control changes, the next government can more easily stop it before it ever takes hold.
The cannabis industry has spent years focusing on when countries will legalize. The next phase may require just as much attention to a different question. Once cannabis reform is enacted, how durable is it when political control changes?
